TIMBER PRODUCTS December HT Newsletter Volume: 12/04/2018

Housing Starts Update

After dropping 5.3 percent in September, US housing starts inched up 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,228,000 units in October. Single-family starts accounted for 865,000 units, which is 1.8 percent below the revised September figure of 881,000, and starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment jumped 10.3 percent to a rate of 363,000 units in October. Multi-family numbers were off over 15 percent last month, so a bounce back is not unexpected.

Among the drivers of this softening is the restrained amount of new-home building since the Great Recession of 2008. Single-family housing starts have been well below the 1984-2004 median level for nearly a decade, which has kept inventories at sustained low levels—particularly at the lower end of the housing market.

Despite the severe drop in builder sentiment and lackluster housing start numbers, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes that Hurricanes Florence and Michael temporarily drove this sentiment lower, and a December rebound is possible. “Indeed, once the hurricane distortions fade from the new home sales numbers, we expect to see a clear rebound for the next few months, before the underlying softening trend re-emerges. The housing market is softening, but it is not melting down, and these data likely overdo the gloom,” said Shepherdson.

Compliments of John Greene, Forest2Market

Maybe Christmas, the Grinch thought, doesn't come from a store.

Dr. Seuss

I will honor Christmas in my heart, and try to keep it all the year.

Charles Dickens

Christmas is a season for kindling the fire for hospitality in the hall, the genial flame of charity in the heart.

Washington Irving

Christmas is a tonic for our souls. It moves us to think of others rather than of ourselves. It directs our thoughts to giving.

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